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Balingen vs FSV Mainz B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 29 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

Balingen

PPG 0.57 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

FSV Mainz B

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 79.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a clear edge.

+21.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-16.7%0-29.8%0-39.6%0-4+14.6%1 1-01.9%1-15.6%1-28.3%1-38.1%1-4+12.3%2 2-00.8%2-12.4%2-23.5%2-33.4%2-4+5.2%3 3-00.2%3-10.7%3-21.0%3-31.0%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 7.7% 20.8% 4.80 -63.0%

Draw 12.5% 23.8% 4.20 -47.5%

Away win 79.7% 65.4% 1.53 +21.9%

Over 2.5 72.8% 69.4% 1.44 +4.8%

Over 3.5 52.3% 47.6% 2.10 +9.8%

BTTS 53.9% 67.6% 1.48 -20.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob53.9%

A 80% / xG 0.8-2.9 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.8%

#2 0–3 9.6%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 1–3 8.1%

#5 0–4 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Balingen0.8

FSV Mainz B2.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.8% · O3.5 PROB 52.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BALINGEN · PPG 0.57

FSV MAINZ B · PPG 1.36

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.36) vs Home POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Balingen (H) 7.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -63.0%

Draw 12.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -47.5%

FSV Mainz B (A) 79.7%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV +21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Balingen face FSV Mainz B in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Balingen a 8% chance, the draw 13% and FSV Mainz B 80%, so FSV Mainz B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Balingen and 2.9 for FSV Mainz B (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Balingen are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 1.36 for FSV Mainz B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Balingen vs FSV Mainz B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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