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Persija vs Persib Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 08:30

Persija

PPG 2.27 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Persib

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-110.5%0-25.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.4%1-113.1%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.8%2-18.3%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.3%3-13.5%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.6% 35.7% 2.80 +16.5%

Draw 30.2% 30.3% 3.30 -0.3%

Away win 28.3% 43.5% 2.30 -20.9%

Over 2.5 46.4% 51.8% 1.93 -10.4%

Over 3.5 20.4% 29.9% 3.35 -19.0%

BTTS 52.3% 58.8% 1.70 -11.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 42% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.9%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Persija1.3

Persib1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.4% · O3.5 PROB 20.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PERSIJA · PPG 2.27

PERSIB · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.27) > Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

Persija (H) 41.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +16.5%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -0.3%

Persib (A) 28.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -20.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Persija face Persib in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persija a 42% chance, the draw 30% and Persib 28%, so Persija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Persija and 1.1 for Persib (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persija are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.73 for Persib. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Persija vs Persib Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Indonesia - Liga 1 Predictions