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Xiamen Feilu vs C. Rongcheng B Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 08:00

Xiamen Feilu

PPG 2.33 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

C. Rongcheng B

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-110.1%0-25.8%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.3%1-113.0%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.3%2-18.3%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.1%3-13.6%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 44.4% 2.25 -10.7%

Draw 28.9% 33.3% 3.00 -8.0%

Away win 31.5% 34.5% 2.90 -8.6%

Over 2.5 46.5% 46.5% 2.15 -0.0%

Over 3.5 22.7% 25.5% 3.92 -6.6%

BTTS 52.3% 51.3% 1.95 +2.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 1.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

D 29% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Xiamen Feilu1.3

C. Rongcheng B1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.7%

Form & verdict PPG

XIAMEN FEILU · PPG 2.33

C. RONGCHENG B · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Xiamen Feilu (H) 39.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -10.7%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.0%

C. Rongcheng B (A) 31.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Xiamen Feilu face C. Rongcheng B in China - League Two on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Xiamen Feilu a 40% chance, the draw 29% and C. Rongcheng B 32%, so Xiamen Feilu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Xiamen Feilu and 1.1 for C. Rongcheng B (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Xiamen Feilu are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.00 for C. Rongcheng B. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Xiamen Feilu vs C. Rongcheng B Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League Two Predictions