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Changchun Xidu vs Shanghai Segend Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 08:00

Changchun Xidu

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Shanghai Segend

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.8%0-23.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.1%1-111.4%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.6%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.7%3-15.4%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.3%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 42.0% 2.38 +17.3%

Draw 25.6% 35.1% 2.85 -16.2%

Away win 25.1% 34.7% 2.88 -16.6%

Over 2.5 53.1% 43.5% 2.30 +22.1%

Over 3.5 31.0% 23.1% 4.33 +34.2%

BTTS 54.6% 51.3% 1.95 +6.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 1.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Changchun Xidu1.7

Shanghai Segend1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHANGCHUN XIDU · PPG 2.00

SHANGHAI SEGEND · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

Changchun Xidu (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +17.3%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -16.2%

Shanghai Segend (A) 25.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Changchun Xidu face Shanghai Segend in China - League Two on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Changchun Xidu a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Shanghai Segend 25%, so Changchun Xidu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Changchun Xidu and 1.1 for Shanghai Segend (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Changchun Xidu are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.33 for Shanghai Segend. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +34.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Changchun Xidu vs Shanghai Segend Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League Two Predictions