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Bahlinger vs S. Kickers Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 29 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

Bahlinger

PPG 0.57 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

S. Kickers

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+17.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-111.1%0-211.3%0-37.6%0-4+6.2%1 1-04.8%1-19.7%1-29.9%1-36.7%1-4+5.4%2 2-02.1%2-14.3%2-24.3%2-32.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-00.6%3-11.2%3-21.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.4% 28.6% 3.50 -46.1%

Draw 20.5% 26.7% 3.75 -23.1%

Away win 64.1% 54.6% 1.83 +17.3%

Over 2.5 55.4% 60.6% 1.65 -8.6%

Over 3.5 33.1% 38.2% 2.62 -13.3%

BTTS 50.6% 63.7% 1.57 -20.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob50.6%

A 64% / xG 0.9-2.0 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.3%

#2 0–1 11.1%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 1–1 9.7%

#5 0–3 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bahlinger0.9

S. Kickers2.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.4% · O3.5 PROB 33.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BAHLINGER · PPG 0.57

S. KICKERS · PPG 1.14

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.14) vs Home POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Bahlinger (H) 15.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -46.1%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -23.1%

S. Kickers (A) 64.1%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bahlinger face S. Kickers in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bahlinger a 15% chance, the draw 21% and S. Kickers 64%, so S. Kickers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Bahlinger and 2.0 for S. Kickers (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bahlinger are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 1.14 for S. Kickers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Bahlinger vs S. Kickers Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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