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Yanbian Longdin vs Guangxi H. Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 07:00

Yanbian Longdin

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Guangxi H.

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-028.5%0-116.0%0-24.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.7%1-111.1%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.9%2-13.9%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.6%3-10.9%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.2% 38.2% 2.62 -10.4%

Draw 41.4% 35.7% 2.80 +15.9%

Away win 24.4% 36.4% 2.75 -19.7%

Over 2.5 25.8% 38.2% 2.62 -19.4%

Over 3.5 3.9% 23.1% 4.33 -49.9%

BTTS 41.8% 47.6% 2.10 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -33.6%

Bet Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.8%

D 41% / xG 0.7-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 28.5%

#2 1–0 19.7%

#3 0–1 16.0%

#4 1–1✓ 11.1%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yanbian Longdin0.7

Guangxi H.0.6

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 3.9%

Form & verdict PPG

YANBIAN LONGDIN · PPG 1.00

GUANGXI H. · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Yanbian Longdin (H) 34.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -10.4%

Draw 41.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +15.9%

Guangxi H. (A) 24.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yanbian Longdin face Guangxi H. in China - League One on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yanbian Longdin a 34% chance, the draw 41% and Guangxi H. 24%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Yanbian Longdin and 0.6 for Guangxi H. (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yanbian Longdin are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Guangxi H.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Yanbian Longdin vs Guangxi H. Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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