Today / China - League One / Dalian Kuncheng vs Guangdong GZP

Dalian Kuncheng vs Guangdong GZP Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 07:00

Dalian Kuncheng

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Guangdong GZP

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+14.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-110.1%0-29.6%0-36.0%0-4+4.4%1 1-05.6%1-110.5%1-29.9%1-36.2%1-4+4.5%2 2-02.9%2-15.4%2-25.1%2-33.2%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.0%3-11.9%3-21.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.8% 30.8% 3.25 -15.5%

Draw 25.2% 31.3% 3.20 -11.6%

Away win 52.0% 47.6% 2.10 +9.2%

Over 2.5 59.3% 51.8% 1.93 +14.4%

Over 3.5 33.6% 30.3% 3.30 +10.9%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -33.6%

Bet Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob54.6%

A 52% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.6%

#4 0–1 10.1%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dalian Kuncheng1.0

Guangdong GZP1.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DALIAN KUNCHENG · PPG 0.67

GUANGDONG GZP · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Dalian Kuncheng (H) 22.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.5%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.6%

Guangdong GZP (A) 52.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dalian Kuncheng face Guangdong GZP in China - League One on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dalian Kuncheng a 23% chance, the draw 25% and Guangdong GZP 52%, so Guangdong GZP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Dalian Kuncheng and 1.9 for Guangdong GZP (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dalian Kuncheng are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 2.00 for Guangdong GZP. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Dalian Kuncheng vs Guangdong GZP Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League One Predictions