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Ulsan vs Bucheon FC Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 05:00

Ulsan

PPG 1.17 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bucheon FC

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-19.5%0-24.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.6%1-112.8%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-18.7%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.2%3-13.9%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 59.5% 1.68 -23.6%

Draw 28.5% 27.8% 3.60 +1.6%

Away win 26.1% 19.2% 5.20 +21.4%

Over 2.5 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Over 3.5 20.0% 28.2% 3.55 -17.4%

BTTS 52.3% 52.6% 1.90 -0.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -30.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 46% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 1–0✓ 13.6%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulsan1.4

Bucheon FC0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ULSAN · PPG 1.17

BUCHEON FC · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.17) vs Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Ulsan (H) 45.5%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -23.6%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +1.6%

Bucheon FC (A) 26.1%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulsan face Bucheon FC in South-Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulsan a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Bucheon FC 26%, so Ulsan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ulsan and 0.9 for Bucheon FC (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulsan are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.67 for Bucheon FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Ulsan vs Bucheon FC Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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