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Charlestown A. vs Broadmeadow Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 05:00

Charlestown A.

PPG 1.50 · HOME

3 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Broadmeadow

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.8%0-27.5%0-35.6%0-4+5.2%1 1-03.9%1-18.6%1-29.5%1-37.1%1-4+6.6%2 2-02.5%2-15.5%2-26.1%2-34.5%2-4+4.2%3 3-01.0%3-12.3%3-22.6%3-31.9%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.1% 26.7% 3.75 -10.3%

Draw 23.7% 28.6% 3.50 -10.2%

Away win 54.3% 57.1% 1.75 -5.0%

Over 2.5 61.7% 63.7% 1.57 -3.1%

Over 3.5 46.2% 44.4% 2.25 +4.0%

BTTS 58.8% 66.7% 1.50 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-5

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob58.8%

A 54% / xG 1.3-2.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.5%

#4 1–3 7.1%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlestown A.1.3

Broadmeadow2.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 46.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLESTOWN A. · PPG 1.50

BROADMEADOW · PPG 2.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Charlestown A. (H) 22.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.3%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.2%

Broadmeadow (A) 54.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlestown A. face Broadmeadow in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlestown A. a 22% chance, the draw 24% and Broadmeadow 54%, so Broadmeadow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Charlestown A. and 2.2 for Broadmeadow (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlestown A. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.40 for Broadmeadow. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 3-5.

Charlestown A. vs Broadmeadow Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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