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Ulverstone vs Clarence Zebras Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 04:30

Ulverstone

PPG 0.25 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Clarence Zebras

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-13.2%0-25.9%0-37.1%0-4+16.7%1 1-01.0%1-13.5%1-26.4%1-37.7%1-4+18.1%2 2-00.5%2-11.9%2-23.4%2-34.2%2-4+9.8%3 3-00.2%3-10.7%3-21.2%3-31.5%3-4+3.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.3% 15.4% 6.50 -12.0%

Draw 21.2% 20.8% 4.80 +1.1%

Away win 66.6% 75.2% 1.33 -11.4%

Over 2.5 73.4% 76.9% 1.30 -4.6%

Over 3.5 69.4% 60.6% 1.65 +14.5%

BTTS 58.8% 69.4% 1.44 -15.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)3.6 BTTS prob58.8%

A 67% / xG 1.1-3.6 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.7%

#2 0–3 7.1%

#3 1–4 7.0%

#4 0–4✓ 6.5%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulverstone1.1

Clarence Zebras3.6

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.4% · O3.5 PROB 69.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ULVERSTONE · PPG 0.25

CLARENCE ZEBRAS · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Ulverstone (H) 12.3%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -12.0%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +1.1%

Clarence Zebras (A) 66.6%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulverstone face Clarence Zebras in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulverstone a 12% chance, the draw 21% and Clarence Zebras 67%, so Clarence Zebras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ulverstone and 3.6 for Clarence Zebras (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulverstone are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 1.50 for Clarence Zebras. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 0-4.

Ulverstone vs Clarence Zebras Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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