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Schalke 04 B vs SSVg Velbert Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

West - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

Schalke 04 B

PPG 1.64 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

SSVg Velbert

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 80.7% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-11.6%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.6%1-15.0%1-22.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.7%2-17.9%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.0%3-18.2%3-23.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-015.3%4+-113.9%4+-26.3%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 80.7% 75.2% 1.33 +7.3%

Draw 11.8% 20.8% 4.80 -43.4%

Away win 7.5% 14.3% 7.00 -47.5%

Over 2.5 76.6% 71.4% 1.40 +7.2%

Over 3.5 57.2% 50.0% 2.00 +14.4%

BTTS 57.0% 62.5% 1.60 -8.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -37.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 82%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob57.0%

H 81% / xG 3.1-0.9 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.0%

#2 2–0 8.7%

#3 3–1 8.2%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 4–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Schalke 04 B3.1

SSVg Velbert0.9

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.6% · O3.5 PROB 57.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SCHALKE 04 B · PPG 1.64

SSVG VELBERT · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.64) > Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Schalke 04 B (H) 80.7%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV +7.3%

Draw 11.8%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -43.4%

SSVg Velbert (A) 7.5%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -47.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Schalke 04 B face SSVg Velbert in Germany - Regionalliga - West on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Schalke 04 B a 81% chance, the draw 12% and SSVg Velbert 8%, so Schalke 04 B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Schalke 04 B and 0.9 for SSVg Velbert (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Schalke 04 B are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.14 for SSVg Velbert. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.4%. This match finished 1-3.

Schalke 04 B vs SSVg Velbert Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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