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SJ Earthquakes vs Vancouver Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 02:30

SJ Earthquakes

PPG 2.40 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Vancouver

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.8%0-25.3%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.4%1-112.5%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.3%2-18.8%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.5%3-14.1%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 32.3% 3.10 +33.0%

Draw 27.1% 27.4% 3.65 -0.7%

Away win 30.0% 47.2% 2.12 -36.4%

Over 2.5 52.8% 66.7% 1.50 -20.8%

Over 3.5 26.5% 44.4% 2.25 -24.2%

BTTS 54.6% 70.4% 1.42 -22.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 43% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SJ Earthquakes1.4

Vancouver1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SJ EARTHQUAKES · PPG 2.40

VANCOUVER · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.40) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

SJ Earthquakes (H) 42.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +33.0%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -0.7%

Vancouver (A) 30.0%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -36.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

SJ Earthquakes face Vancouver in USA - Major League Soccer on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SJ Earthquakes a 43% chance, the draw 27% and Vancouver 30%, so SJ Earthquakes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for SJ Earthquakes and 1.2 for Vancouver (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SJ Earthquakes are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 2.00 for Vancouver. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +33.0%. This match finished 1-1.

SJ Earthquakes vs Vancouver Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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