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Seattle vs San Diego Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 02:30

Seattle

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

San Diego

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-13.8%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.8%1-18.6%1-23.4%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-19.6%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.0%3-17.2%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-16.7%4+-22.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.0% 61.3% 1.63 -5.5%

Draw 23.2% 24.4% 4.10 -2.9%

Away win 18.8% 21.3% 4.70 -7.0%

Over 2.5 59.3% 64.5% 1.55 -8.1%

Over 3.5 36.0% 42.6% 2.35 -15.4%

BTTS 52.3% 63.7% 1.57 -17.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 58% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.1%

#2 1–1✓ 8.6%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 3–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seattle2.2

San Diego0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 36.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SEATTLE · PPG 3.00

SAN DIEGO · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=58.0%

Win probability 1X2

Seattle (H) 58.0%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -5.5%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -2.9%

San Diego (A) 18.8%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seattle face San Diego in USA - Major League Soccer on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seattle a 58% chance, the draw 23% and San Diego 19%, so Seattle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Seattle and 0.8 for San Diego (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seattle are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.80 for San Diego. This match finished 1-1.

Seattle vs San Diego Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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