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Portland vs Sporting KC Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 12 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 02:30

Portland

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDL

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sporting KC

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-12.8%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.3%1-17.2%1-24.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.0%2-19.2%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.9%3-17.9%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-19.3%4+-25.4%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.8% 66.7% 1.50 -13.3%

Draw 21.0% 21.5% 4.65 -1.4%

Away win 21.2% 18.9% 5.30 +7.4%

Over 2.5 61.7% 72.5% 1.38 -14.8%

Over 3.5 50.9% 51.3% 1.95 -0.7%

BTTS 58.8% 69.0% 1.45 -14.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.8%

H 58% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.2%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portland2.6

Sporting KC1.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 50.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTLAND · PPG 1.75

SPORTING KC · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

69%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=57.8%

Win probability 1X2

Portland (H) 57.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -13.3%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV -1.4%

Sporting KC (A) 21.2%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV +7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portland face Sporting KC in USA - Major League Soccer on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portland a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Sporting KC 21%, so Portland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Portland and 1.1 for Sporting KC (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portland are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.60 for Sporting KC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.4%. This match finished 6-0.

Portland vs Sporting KC Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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