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Rhode Island vs Tampa Bay Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 23:30

Rhode Island

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Tampa Bay

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-115.0%0-210.7%0-35.1%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.7%1-112.4%1-28.8%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-03.6%2-15.1%2-23.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.0%3-11.4%3-21.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.9% 41.7% 2.40 -24.1%

Draw 28.8% 30.8% 3.25 -3.8%

Away win 46.3% 37.7% 2.65 +22.7%

Over 2.5 45.8% 51.8% 1.93 -11.6%

Over 3.5 19.0% 29.9% 3.35 -21.8%

BTTS 50.9% 58.8% 1.70 -13.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob50.9%

A 46% / xG 0.8-1.4 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.4%

#2 0–1 15.0%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 0–2 10.7%

#5 1–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rhode Island0.8

Tampa Bay1.4

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RHODE ISLAND · PPG 1.25

TAMPA BAY · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Rhode Island (H) 24.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -24.1%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -3.8%

Tampa Bay (A) 46.3%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rhode Island face Tampa Bay in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rhode Island a 25% chance, the draw 29% and Tampa Bay 46%, so Tampa Bay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Rhode Island and 1.4 for Tampa Bay (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rhode Island are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.33 for Tampa Bay. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Rhode Island vs Tampa Bay Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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