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New England vs Philadelphia Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 12 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 23:30

New England

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Philadelphia

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

// Model verdict

Home 45% chance

Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 38.2% — a clear edge.

+60.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-13.6%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.5%1-18.2%1-22.9%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.0%2-19.3%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.8%3-17.0%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.5%4+-16.8%4+-22.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.2% 38.2% 2.62 +60.3%

Draw 23.8% 29.9% 3.35 -12.2%

Away win 15.0% 39.1% 2.56 -37.0%

Over 2.5 59.3% 50.0% 2.00 +18.6%

Over 3.5 34.9% 28.2% 3.55 +23.9%

BTTS 52.3% 57.1% 1.75 -8.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.3%

H 61% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.0%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 3–0 9.8%

#4 1–1 8.2%

#5 2–1✓ 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New England2.3

Philadelphia0.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW ENGLAND · PPG 3.00

PHILADELPHIA · PPG 0.67

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

45%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=61.2%

Win probability 1X2

New England (H) 61.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +60.3%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -12.2%

Philadelphia (A) 15.0%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -37.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

New England face Philadelphia in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New England a 61% chance, the draw 24% and Philadelphia 15%, so New England are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for New England and 0.7 for Philadelphia (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New England are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Philadelphia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +60.3%. This match finished 2-1.

New England vs Philadelphia Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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