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Charlotte vs Cincinnati Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 12 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 23:30

Charlotte

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cincinnati

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+10.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.7%0-21.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-02.7%1-14.9%1-24.3%1-32.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.0%2-17.0%2-26.2%2-33.7%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.8%3-16.7%3-26.0%3-33.5%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-19.8%4+-28.7%4+-35.1%4+-4+3.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 47.2% 2.12 +9.4%

Draw 22.2% 26.3% 3.80 -9.4%

Away win 26.2% 33.6% 2.98 -13.2%

Over 2.5 73.3% 66.7% 1.50 +10.0%

Over 3.5 68.3% 44.4% 2.25 +53.7%

BTTS 66.7% 69.4% 1.44 -4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob66.7%

H 52% / xG 2.9-1.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.0%

#2 3–1 6.7%

#3 2–2✓ 6.2%

#4 3–2 6.0%

#5 1–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlotte2.9

Cincinnati1.8

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.3% · O3.5 PROB 68.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLOTTE · PPG 2.00

CINCINNATI · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

69%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=51.6%

Win probability 1X2

Charlotte (H) 51.6%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +9.4%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.4%

Cincinnati (A) 26.2%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlotte face Cincinnati in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlotte a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Cincinnati 26%, so Charlotte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Charlotte and 1.8 for Cincinnati (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlotte are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.83 for Cincinnati. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +53.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Charlotte vs Cincinnati Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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