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Atlanta Utd vs LA Galaxy Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 12 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 23:30

Atlanta Utd

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

LA Galaxy

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-17.8%0-25.9%0-32.9%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.5%1-111.3%1-28.5%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.3%2-26.2%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.7%3-14.0%3-23.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 43.1% 2.32 -13.5%

Draw 26.3% 27.8% 3.60 -3.2%

Away win 36.4% 36.0% 2.78 +1.2%

Over 2.5 59.3% 60.6% 1.65 -2.2%

Over 3.5 34.4% 37.7% 2.65 -8.8%

BTTS 58.8% 65.4% 1.53 -10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.8%

H 37% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2✓ 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–0 5.2%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlanta Utd1.5

LA Galaxy1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLANTA UTD · PPG 1.00

LA GALAXY · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Atlanta Utd (H) 37.3%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -13.5%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -3.2%

LA Galaxy (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV +1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlanta Utd face LA Galaxy in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlanta Utd a 37% chance, the draw 26% and LA Galaxy 36%, so Atlanta Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Atlanta Utd and 1.5 for LA Galaxy (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlanta Utd are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for LA Galaxy. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Atlanta Utd vs LA Galaxy Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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