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Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 23:00

Louisville City

PPG 2.25 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Pittsburgh

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+14.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.6%0-22.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.8%1-18.4%1-24.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.0%2-19.7%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.9%3-17.5%3-24.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-17.5%4+-24.0%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 69.0% 1.45 -23.4%

Draw 24.7% 25.6% 3.90 -2.2%

Away win 22.6% 15.6% 6.40 +26.8%

Over 2.5 61.6% 54.1% 1.85 +14.0%

Over 3.5 44.1% 31.3% 3.20 +41.1%

BTTS 58.8% 51.3% 1.95 +14.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.8%

H 53% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.7%

#2 1–1 8.4%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Louisville City2.3

Pittsburgh1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.6% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LOUISVILLE CITY · PPG 2.25

PITTSBURGH · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=52.8%

Win probability 1X2

Louisville City (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -23.4%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.2%

Pittsburgh (A) 22.6%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +26.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Louisville City face Pittsburgh in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Louisville City a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Pittsburgh 23%, so Louisville City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Louisville City and 1.1 for Pittsburgh (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Louisville City are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.80 for Pittsburgh. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +41.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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