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Indy Eleven vs Sporting JAX Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 23:00

Indy Eleven

PPG 2.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sporting JAX

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-13.3%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.9%1-17.7%1-22.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-19.0%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.7%3-17.0%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.7%4+-17.0%4+-22.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.5% 61.0% 1.64 +7.4%

Draw 22.2% 26.7% 3.75 -10.1%

Away win 12.3% 22.2% 4.50 -26.8%

Over 2.5 59.3% 58.8% 1.70 +0.8%

Over 3.5 34.7% 36.4% 2.75 -4.6%

BTTS 50.8% 59.9% 1.67 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.8%

H 66% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.8%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 3–0 10.7%

#4 2–1✓ 9.0%

#5 1–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Indy Eleven2.3

Sporting JAX0.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

INDY ELEVEN · PPG 2.33

SPORTING JAX · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away POOR (0.20) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Indy Eleven (H) 65.5%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +7.4%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.1%

Sporting JAX (A) 12.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -26.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Indy Eleven face Sporting JAX in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Indy Eleven a 66% chance, the draw 22% and Sporting JAX 12%, so Indy Eleven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Indy Eleven and 0.7 for Sporting JAX (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Indy Eleven are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.20 for Sporting JAX. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Indy Eleven vs Sporting JAX Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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