Today / USA - USL Championship / Hartford A. vs Detroit City

Hartford A. vs Detroit City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 23:00

Hartford A.

PPG 0.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Detroit City

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.9%0-117.2%0-28.7%0-32.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.9%1-113.1%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-04.9%2-15.0%2-22.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.2%3-11.3%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.4% 44.4% 2.25 -23.0%

Draw 35.5% 31.3% 3.20 +13.6%

Away win 37.1% 34.7% 2.88 +6.9%

Over 2.5 35.1% 51.3% 1.95 -31.6%

Over 3.5 10.5% 29.0% 3.45 -38.3%

BTTS 45.9% 57.8% 1.73 -20.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.9%

D 36% / xG 0.8-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.9%

#2 0–1 17.2%

#3 1–1 13.1%

#4 1–0 12.9%

#5 0–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hartford A.0.8

Detroit City1.0

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 10.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HARTFORD A. · PPG 0.67

DETROIT CITY · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.67) > Away POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Hartford A. (H) 27.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -23.0%

Draw 35.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +13.6%

Detroit City (A) 37.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hartford A. face Detroit City in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hartford A. a 27% chance, the draw 36% and Detroit City 37%, so Detroit City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Hartford A. and 1.0 for Detroit City (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hartford A. are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.33 for Detroit City. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Hartford A. vs Detroit City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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