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Brooklyn FC vs Loudoun Utd Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 23:00

Brooklyn FC

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Loudoun Utd

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.8%0-25.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.1%1-112.5%1-27.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-18.9%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.7%3-14.2%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 45.5% 2.20 -2.3%

Draw 28.1% 29.4% 3.40 -2.7%

Away win 27.5% 35.1% 2.85 -13.0%

Over 2.5 46.5% 56.5% 1.77 -17.7%

Over 3.5 25.4% 33.9% 2.95 -15.0%

BTTS 54.6% 62.5% 1.60 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brooklyn FC1.4

Loudoun Utd1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BROOKLYN FC · PPG 1.40

LOUDOUN UTD · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=44.4%

Win probability 1X2

Brooklyn FC (H) 44.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -2.3%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.7%

Loudoun Utd (A) 27.5%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brooklyn FC face Loudoun Utd in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brooklyn FC a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Loudoun Utd 28%, so Brooklyn FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Brooklyn FC and 1.1 for Loudoun Utd (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brooklyn FC are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.50 for Loudoun Utd. This match finished 0-1.

Brooklyn FC vs Loudoun Utd Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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