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Paderborn B vs Dusseldorf B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

West - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

Paderborn B

PPG 1.71 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Dusseldorf B

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.5%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.7%1-19.4%1-25.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.4%3-16.9%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-15.9%4+-23.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.8% 48.8% 2.05 +24.6%

Draw 20.5% 27.4% 3.65 -25.2%

Away win 18.7% 34.5% 2.90 -45.8%

Over 2.5 61.7% 59.9% 1.67 +3.0%

Over 3.5 39.4% 37.0% 2.70 +6.4%

BTTS 58.0% 63.7% 1.57 -8.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -37.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.0%

H 61% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.9%

#2 1–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paderborn B2.1

Dusseldorf B1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PADERBORN B · PPG 1.71

DUSSELDORF B · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Paderborn B (H) 60.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +24.6%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -25.2%

Dusseldorf B (A) 18.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -45.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paderborn B face Dusseldorf B in Germany - Regionalliga - West on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paderborn B a 61% chance, the draw 21% and Dusseldorf B 19%, so Paderborn B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Paderborn B and 1.1 for Dusseldorf B (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paderborn B are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.14 for Dusseldorf B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Paderborn B vs Dusseldorf B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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