Today / Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura / Nacional vs S. Trinidense

Nacional vs S. Trinidense Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Apertura - 20 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 23:00

Nacional

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

S. Trinidense

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-110.3%0-24.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.3%1-113.0%1-25.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.7%2-18.2%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.1%3-13.4%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 45.0% 2.22 -1.0%

Draw 29.3% 32.8% 3.05 -6.4%

Away win 26.1% 30.8% 3.25 -9.1%

Over 2.5 45.8% 46.5% 2.15 -1.5%

Over 3.5 16.2% 25.6% 3.90 -22.1%

BTTS 48.2% 55.6% 1.80 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 9.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.2%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 15.3%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 0–1 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacional1.3

S. Trinidense0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NACIONAL · PPG 2.00

S. TRINIDENSE · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=44.6%

Win probability 1X2

Nacional (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -1.0%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -6.4%

S. Trinidense (A) 26.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacional face S. Trinidense in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacional a 45% chance, the draw 29% and S. Trinidense 26%, so Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Nacional and 0.8 for S. Trinidense (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacional are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.78 for S. Trinidense. This match finished 2-1.

Nacional vs S. Trinidense Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

More Paraguay - Division Profesional - Apertura Predictions