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Ceara vs Atletico GO Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 22:00

Ceara

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Atletico GO

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-110.5%0-24.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.7%1-112.8%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.2%2-17.8%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.1%3-13.2%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 52.6% 1.90 -11.8%

Draw 28.3% 31.7% 3.15 -6.5%

Away win 25.3% 22.7% 4.40 +6.8%

Over 2.5 37.9% 41.7% 2.40 -9.0%

Over 3.5 14.2% 21.1% 4.75 -19.5%

BTTS 48.2% 48.8% 2.05 -1.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 179 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.2%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.6%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 1–0 16.7%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 0–1✓ 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ceara1.2

Atletico GO0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.9% · O3.5 PROB 14.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CEARA · PPG 1.67

ATLETICO GO · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=46.4%

Win probability 1X2

Ceara (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -11.8%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -6.5%

Atletico GO (A) 25.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ceara face Atletico GO in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ceara a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Atletico GO 25%, so Ceara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ceara and 0.8 for Atletico GO (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ceara are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.33 for Atletico GO. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Ceara vs Atletico GO Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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