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Ponte Preta vs Sport Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 21:30

Ponte Preta

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Sport Recife

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.4%0-123.1%0-210.1%0-33.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.0%1-110.5%1-24.6%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-02.7%2-12.4%2-21.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.4%3-10.4%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.4% — — —

Draw 41.0% — — —

Away win 39.6% — — —

Over 2.5 25.8% — — —

Over 3.5 4.6% — — —

BTTS 41.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob41.5%

A 40% / xG 0.5-0.9 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.4%

#2 0–1 23.1%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 1–0 12.0%

#5 0–2 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ponte Preta0.5

Sport Recife0.9

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 4.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PONTE PRETA · PPG 1.33

SPORT RECIFE · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.33) vs Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Ponte Preta (H) 19.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 41.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sport Recife (A) 39.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ponte Preta face Sport Recife in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ponte Preta a 19% chance, the draw 41% and Sport Recife 40%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.5 for Ponte Preta and 0.9 for Sport Recife (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ponte Preta are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.67 for Sport Recife. This match finished 1-3.

Ponte Preta vs Sport Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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