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Athletic Club vs Cuiaba Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 21:00

Athletic Club

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Cuiaba

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-028.3%0-118.7%0-26.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.1%1-111.2%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-05.1%2-13.4%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.0%3-10.7%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.4% 40.8% 2.45 -19.7%

Draw 43.4% 34.7% 2.88 +25.0%

Away win 29.2% 31.3% 3.20 -3.9%

Over 2.5 25.8% 38.5% 2.60 -19.8%

Over 3.5 3.9% 20.0% 5.00 -48.3%

BTTS 41.8% 48.8% 2.05 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob41.8%

D 43% / xG 0.6-0.7 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 28.3%

#2 0–1 18.7%

#3 1–0 17.1%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic Club0.6

Cuiaba0.7

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 3.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 1.33

CUIABA · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

43%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.33) vs Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Athletic Club (H) 27.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -19.7%

Draw 43.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +25.0%

Cuiaba (A) 29.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic Club face Cuiaba in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic Club a 27% chance, the draw 43% and Cuiaba 29%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Athletic Club and 0.7 for Cuiaba (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic Club are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.67 for Cuiaba. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +25.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Athletic Club vs Cuiaba Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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