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Fluminense vs Vitoria Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 21:00

Fluminense

PPG 2.57 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vitoria

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+18.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-15.0%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.7%1-110.0%1-24.7%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.0%3-16.6%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-15.1%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 67.1% 1.49 -24.0%

Draw 26.4% 25.3% 3.95 +2.6%

Away win 22.6% 14.3% 7.00 +34.9%

Over 2.5 59.3% 50.0% 2.00 +18.6%

Over 3.5 33.4% 28.2% 3.55 +18.6%

BTTS 54.6% 47.6% 2.10 +14.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–0 10.6%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 3–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fluminense2.0

Vitoria0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FLUMINENSE · PPG 2.57

VITORIA · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.57) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Fluminense (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.49 · IMPLIED 67.1% EV -24.0%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +2.6%

Vitoria (A) 22.6%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +34.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fluminense face Vitoria in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fluminense a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Vitoria 23%, so Fluminense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Fluminense and 0.9 for Vitoria (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fluminense are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 0.33 for Vitoria. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Fluminense vs Vitoria Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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