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A. Rafaela vs Gimnasia y Tiro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 21:00

A. Rafaela

PPG 1.83 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Gimnasia y Tiro

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-19.4%0-22.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.1%1-111.9%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.1%2-17.6%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.1%3-13.2%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 47.6% 2.10 +4.4%

Draw 28.3% 35.1% 2.85 -11.6%

Away win 22.0% 26.7% 3.75 -10.5%

Over 2.5 35.1% 30.8% 3.25 +14.1%

Over 3.5 12.4% 14.3% 7.00 -7.9%

BTTS 45.9% 39.2% 2.55 +17.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.9%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 19.1%

#2 0–0 15.0%

#3 1–1 11.9%

#4 2–0 12.1%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Rafaela1.3

Gimnasia y Tiro0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.4%

Form & verdict PPG

A. RAFAELA · PPG 1.83

GIMNASIA Y TIRO · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=49.7%

Win probability 1X2

A. Rafaela (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +4.4%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -11.6%

Gimnasia y Tiro (A) 22.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Rafaela face Gimnasia y Tiro in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Rafaela a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Gimnasia y Tiro 22%, so A. Rafaela are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for A. Rafaela and 0.6 for Gimnasia y Tiro (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Rafaela are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.75 for Gimnasia y Tiro. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +17.0%. This match finished 1-0.

A. Rafaela vs Gimnasia y Tiro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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