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CF Montreal vs Orlando City Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 20:30

CF Montreal

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Orlando City

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a clear edge.

+16.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.4%0-21.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-02.7%1-14.4%1-23.5%1-31.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-04.2%2-16.8%2-25.6%2-33.0%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.4%3-17.2%3-25.8%3-33.1%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-112.3%4+-210.0%4+-35.4%4+-4+3.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.0% 52.6% 1.90 +10.2%

Draw 20.7% 25.6% 3.90 -11.6%

Away win 21.3% 29.0% 3.45 -15.9%

Over 2.5 75.3% 64.5% 1.55 +16.7%

Over 3.5 69.9% 42.6% 2.35 +64.3%

BTTS 64.6% 66.7% 1.50 -3.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob64.6%

H 58% / xG 3.1-1.6 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.2%

#2 2–1 6.8%

#3 3–2 5.8%

#4 4–1 5.6%

#5 2–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CF Montreal3.1

Orlando City1.6

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.3% · O3.5 PROB 69.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CF MONTREAL · PPG 2.00

ORLANDO CITY · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=58.0%

Win probability 1X2

CF Montreal (H) 58.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +10.2%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -11.6%

Orlando City (A) 21.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -15.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

CF Montreal face Orlando City in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CF Montreal a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Orlando City 21%, so CF Montreal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for CF Montreal and 1.6 for Orlando City (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CF Montreal are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Orlando City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +64.3%. This match finished 2-0.

CF Montreal vs Orlando City Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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