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Atletico Grau vs Cienciano Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 14 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 20:15

Atletico Grau

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cienciano

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-114.1%0-29.1%0-33.9%0-4+1.7%1 1-010.1%1-113.0%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.6%2-16.0%2-23.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.4%3-11.9%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.4% 43.9% 2.28 -22.5%

Draw 29.5% 31.3% 3.20 -3.4%

Away win 43.1% 31.7% 3.15 +35.8%

Over 2.5 45.8% 47.6% 2.10 -3.8%

Over 3.5 18.4% 26.3% 3.80 -18.1%

BTTS 51.0% 55.6% 1.80 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.0%

A 43% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 0–1 14.1%

#4 0–2 9.1%

#5 1–2✓ 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Grau0.9

Cienciano1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO GRAU · PPG 1.33

CIENCIANO · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Grau (H) 27.4%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -22.5%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.4%

Cienciano (A) 43.1%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +35.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Grau face Cienciano in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Grau a 27% chance, the draw 30% and Cienciano 43%, so Cienciano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Atletico Grau and 1.3 for Cienciano (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Grau are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.17 for Cienciano. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +35.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Atletico Grau vs Cienciano Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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