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Dortmund B vs Rodinghausen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

West - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

Dortmund B

PPG 1.73 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Rodinghausen

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 76.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a clear edge.

+11.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.2%0-21.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.9%1-16.2%1-23.8%1-31.6%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.9%2-18.6%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.4%3-18.0%3-25.0%3-32.1%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-110.9%4+-26.8%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.5% 63.7% 1.57 +9.1%

Draw 15.9% 25.0% 4.00 -36.4%

Away win 14.7% 21.1% 4.75 -30.2%

Over 2.5 76.6% 69.0% 1.45 +11.1%

Over 3.5 57.2% 47.6% 2.10 +20.1%

BTTS 66.9% 69.0% 1.45 -3.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -37.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 82%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob66.9%

H 70% / xG 2.8-1.2 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 2–0 6.9%

#4 3–0 6.4%

#5 1–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dortmund B2.8

Rodinghausen1.2

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.6% · O3.5 PROB 57.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DORTMUND B · PPG 1.73

RODINGHAUSEN · PPG 0.93

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Dortmund B (H) 69.5%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +9.1%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -36.4%

Rodinghausen (A) 14.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -30.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dortmund B face Rodinghausen in Germany - Regionalliga - West on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dortmund B a 70% chance, the draw 16% and Rodinghausen 15%, so Dortmund B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Dortmund B and 1.2 for Rodinghausen (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dortmund B are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.93 for Rodinghausen. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.1%. This match finished 3-2.

Dortmund B vs Rodinghausen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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