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Deportes Temuco vs Union Espanola Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 19:00

Deportes Temuco

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Union Espanola

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.4%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.6%1-111.8%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.5%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.5%3-15.1%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 44.4% 2.25 +7.8%

Draw 26.3% 30.3% 3.30 -7.9%

Away win 25.8% 35.7% 2.80 -16.7%

Over 2.5 53.1% 54.1% 1.85 -1.8%

Over 3.5 29.0% 31.3% 3.20 -4.3%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Temuco1.6

Union Espanola1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES TEMUCO · PPG 1.50

UNION ESPANOLA · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=47.9%

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Temuco (H) 47.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +7.8%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.9%

Union Espanola (A) 25.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Temuco face Union Espanola in Chile - Primera B on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Temuco a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Union Espanola 26%, so Deportes Temuco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Deportes Temuco and 1.1 for Union Espanola (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Temuco are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.25 for Union Espanola. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Deportes Temuco vs Union Espanola Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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