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Goias vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 19:00

Goias

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Vila Nova

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-110.4%0-28.3%0-34.4%0-4+2.5%1 1-07.4%1-111.8%1-29.4%1-35.0%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.2%2-16.7%2-25.4%2-32.8%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.6%3-12.5%3-22.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.0% — — —

Draw 27.4% — — —

Away win 44.5% — — —

Over 2.5 53.1% — — —

Over 3.5 29.3% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.6%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 10.4%

#4 0–2 8.3%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Goias1.1

Vila Nova1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GOIAS · PPG 2.00

VILA NOVA · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Goias (H) 28.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Vila Nova (A) 44.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Goias face Vila Nova in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Goias a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Vila Nova 45%, so Vila Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Goias and 1.6 for Vila Nova (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Goias are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.67 for Vila Nova. This match finished 1-0.

Goias vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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