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Coritiba vs Internacional Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 19:00

Coritiba

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Internacional

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.0%0-114.6%0-26.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.5%1-113.3%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.1%2-16.1%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.2%3-11.9%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 36.5% 2.74 -0.3%

Draw 34.3% 31.7% 3.15 +8.1%

Away win 29.3% 38.5% 2.60 -14.3%

Over 2.5 35.1% 45.5% 2.20 -22.8%

Over 3.5 10.4% 23.8% 4.20 -33.8%

BTTS 47.0% 54.1% 1.85 -13.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.0%

D 34% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.0%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 15.5%

#4 0–1 14.6%

#5 2–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coritiba0.9

Internacional0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 10.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CORITIBA · PPG 1.33

INTERNACIONAL · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

47%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Coritiba (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -0.3%

Draw 34.3%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +8.1%

Internacional (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Coritiba face Internacional in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coritiba a 36% chance, the draw 34% and Internacional 29%, so Coritiba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Coritiba and 0.9 for Internacional (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coritiba are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Internacional. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Coritiba vs Internacional Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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