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Motherwell vs Hearts Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Championship Group - 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 19:00

Motherwell

PPG 2.06 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hearts

PPG 1.76 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-111.1%0-25.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.8%1-113.3%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.7%2-18.0%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.1%3-13.2%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% 36.4% 2.75 +9.4%

Draw 30.2% 29.0% 3.45 +4.2%

Away win 30.0% 41.7% 2.40 -28.0%

Over 2.5 45.8% 54.6% 1.83 -16.2%

Over 3.5 18.7% 32.3% 3.10 -25.2%

BTTS 52.3% 60.6% 1.65 -13.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

D 30% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.7%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Motherwell1.2

Hearts1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MOTHERWELL · PPG 2.06

HEARTS · PPG 1.76

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.06) > Away GOOD (1.76)

Win probability 1X2

Motherwell (H) 39.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +9.4%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +4.2%

Hearts (A) 30.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -28.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Motherwell face Hearts in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Motherwell a 40% chance, the draw 30% and Hearts 30%, so Motherwell are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Motherwell and 1.0 for Hearts (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Motherwell are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.76 for Hearts. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Motherwell vs Hearts Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - Premiership Predictions