Today / Italy - Serie A / Lecce vs Juventus

Lecce vs Juventus Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:45

Lecce

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Juventus

PPG 1.65 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-118.4%0-212.8%0-35.9%0-4+2.8%1 1-08.3%1-111.6%1-28.1%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-02.6%2-13.7%2-22.5%2-31.2%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.6%3-10.8%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.2% 13.5% 7.40 +11.9%

Draw 28.7% 23.0% 4.35 +14.9%

Away win 55.1% 70.4% 1.42 -21.8%

Over 2.5 45.0% 59.9% 1.67 -24.9%

Over 3.5 14.7% 37.0% 2.70 -36.2%

BTTS 47.9% 54.6% 1.83 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob47.9%

A 55% / xG 0.6-1.4 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 18.4%

#2 0–0 13.3%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 0–2 12.8%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lecce0.6

Juventus1.4

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.0% · O3.5 PROB 14.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LECCE · PPG 1.00

JUVENTUS · PPG 1.65

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.65) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Lecce (H) 16.2%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +11.9%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV +14.9%

Juventus (A) 55.1%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lecce face Juventus in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lecce a 16% chance, the draw 29% and Juventus 55%, so Juventus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Lecce and 1.4 for Juventus (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lecce are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.65 for Juventus. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +14.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Lecce vs Juventus Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie A Predictions