Today / USA - Major League Soccer / Chicago Fire vs New York RB
Chicago Fire vs New York RB Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer
Matchday 12 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:30
// Model verdict
Home 65% chance
Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.9%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 76 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 64% / xG 3.1-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 58.4%
Form & verdict
CHICAGO FIRE · PPG 2.00
NEW YORK RB · PPG 0.83
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=63.8%
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Chicago Fire face New York RB in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chicago Fire a 64% chance, the draw 22% and New York RB 15%, so Chicago Fire are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Chicago Fire and 1.0 for New York RB (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chicago Fire are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.83 for New York RB. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.0%. This match finished 1-3.