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Lok. Leipzig vs Hallescher Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

Lok. Leipzig

PPG 2.36 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Hallescher

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-16.6%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.9%1-111.3%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.7%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.9%3-15.6%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.5% 51.3% 1.95 +8.2%

Draw 23.8% 28.6% 3.50 -16.7%

Away win 20.7% 30.3% 3.30 -31.7%

Over 2.5 50.0% 55.6% 1.80 -10.0%

Over 3.5 28.0% 32.3% 3.10 -13.2%

BTTS 50.5% 59.9% 1.67 -15.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.5%

H 56% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.9%

#2 1–1 11.3%

#3 2–0 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0✓ 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lok. Leipzig1.7

Hallescher1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LOK. LEIPZIG · PPG 2.36

HALLESCHER · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.36) > Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Lok. Leipzig (H) 55.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +8.2%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -16.7%

Hallescher (A) 20.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -31.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lok. Leipzig face Hallescher in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lok. Leipzig a 56% chance, the draw 24% and Hallescher 21%, so Lok. Leipzig are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Lok. Leipzig and 1.0 for Hallescher (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lok. Leipzig are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.71 for Hallescher. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Lok. Leipzig vs Hallescher Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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