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San Miguel vs CA Estudiantes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:30

San Miguel

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

CA Estudiantes

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.9%0-116.1%0-25.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.9%1-111.7%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.9%2-14.3%2-21.3%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.7%3-11.0%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.2% — — —

Draw 41.4% — — —

Away win 24.4% — — —

Over 2.5 25.8% — — —

Over 3.5 4.8% — — —

BTTS 41.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.8%

D 41% / xG 0.7-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.9%

#2 1–0 18.9%

#3 0–1 16.1%

#4 1–1✓ 11.7%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Miguel0.7

CA Estudiantes0.6

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 4.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MIGUEL · PPG 1.67

CA ESTUDIANTES · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

San Miguel (H) 34.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 41.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

CA Estudiantes (A) 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

San Miguel face CA Estudiantes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Miguel a 34% chance, the draw 41% and CA Estudiantes 24%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for San Miguel and 0.6 for CA Estudiantes (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Miguel are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.50 for CA Estudiantes. This match finished 1-1.

San Miguel vs CA Estudiantes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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