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Maribor vs NK Olimpija Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:15

Maribor

PPG 1.93 · HOME

UPCOMING

NK Olimpija

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.3%0-24.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.2%1-111.8%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.4%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.3%3-15.0%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 51.3% 1.95 -6.6%

Draw 26.3% 29.9% 3.35 -7.1%

Away win 25.8% 28.2% 3.55 -5.1%

Over 2.5 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Over 3.5 29.8% 33.3% 3.00 -6.4%

BTTS 54.6% 60.6% 1.65 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 30.6%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 8.1%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maribor1.6

NK Olimpija1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MARIBOR · PPG 1.93

NK OLIMPIJA · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.93) > Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Maribor (H) 47.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -6.6%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -7.1%

NK Olimpija (A) 25.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maribor face NK Olimpija in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maribor a 48% chance, the draw 26% and NK Olimpija 26%, so Maribor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Maribor and 1.2 for NK Olimpija (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maribor are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.47 for NK Olimpija.

Maribor vs NK Olimpija Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions