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Al Zulfi vs Al Raed Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:00

Al Zulfi

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Raed

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-19.5%0-26.4%0-32.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.1%1-112.4%1-28.4%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.0%2-18.1%2-25.5%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.6%3-13.5%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 35.7% 2.80 +3.3%

Draw 27.0% 29.9% 3.35 -5.7%

Away win 36.1% 44.4% 2.25 -18.8%

Over 2.5 52.8% 57.8% 1.73 -8.7%

Over 3.5 27.7% 35.7% 2.80 -13.5%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

A 36% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.0%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Zulfi1.3

Al Raed1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ZULFI · PPG 1.25

AL RAED · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Al Zulfi (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +3.3%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.7%

Al Raed (A) 36.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Zulfi face Al Raed in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Zulfi a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Al Raed 36%, so Al Zulfi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Al Zulfi and 1.4 for Al Raed (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Zulfi are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.25 for Al Raed. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Al Zulfi vs Al Raed Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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