Today / Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 / Al Jubail vs Al Ula

Al Jubail vs Al Ula Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:00

Al Jubail

PPG 0.81 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Al Ula

PPG 2.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 65.6% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-19.7%0-212.2%0-310.2%0-4+11.6%1 1-02.9%1-17.2%1-29.0%1-37.6%1-4+8.6%2 2-01.1%2-12.7%2-23.4%2-32.8%2-4+3.2%3 3-00.3%3-10.7%3-20.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.8% 7.1% 14.00 +47.5%

Draw 21.6% 17.2% 5.80 +15.2%

Away win 65.6% 85.5% 1.17 -23.3%

Over 2.5 60.2% 73.5% 1.36 -18.1%

Over 3.5 40.9% 52.6% 1.90 -22.3%

BTTS 52.3% 54.6% 1.83 -4.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob52.3%

A 66% / xG 0.7-2.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2✓ 12.2%

#2 0–3 10.2%

#3 1–2 9.0%

#4 0–1 9.7%

#5 1–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Jubail0.7

Al Ula2.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL JUBAIL · PPG 0.81

AL ULA · PPG 2.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs Home POOR (0.81)

Win probability 1X2

Al Jubail (H) 12.8%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +47.5%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +15.2%

Al Ula (A) 65.6%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Jubail face Al Ula in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Jubail a 13% chance, the draw 22% and Al Ula 66%, so Al Ula are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Al Jubail and 2.5 for Al Ula (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Jubail are averaging 0.81 points per game versus 2.06 for Al Ula. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +47.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Al Jubail vs Al Ula Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 Predictions