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Al Jabalain vs Al Arabi Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:00

Al Jabalain

PPG 1.88 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Al Arabi

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-13.4%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.8%1-17.9%1-22.6%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-19.1%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.5%3-17.0%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.4%4+-16.9%4+-22.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.3% 71.4% 1.40 -11.4%

Draw 22.3% 23.8% 4.20 -3.8%

Away win 14.4% 15.2% 6.60 -3.0%

Over 2.5 59.3% 66.7% 1.50 -11.1%

Over 3.5 34.7% 44.4% 2.25 -21.9%

BTTS 50.9% 61.7% 1.62 -17.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.9%

H 63% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.6%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 3–0 10.5%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 1–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Jabalain2.3

Al Arabi0.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL JABALAIN · PPG 1.88

AL ARABI · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=63.3%

Win probability 1X2

Al Jabalain (H) 63.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -11.4%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.8%

Al Arabi (A) 14.4%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV -3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Jabalain face Al Arabi in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Jabalain a 63% chance, the draw 22% and Al Arabi 14%, so Al Jabalain are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Al Jabalain and 0.7 for Al Arabi (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Jabalain are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.44 for Al Arabi. This match finished 4-0.

Al Jabalain vs Al Arabi Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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