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Peru - Primera División
Apertura - 14
Estadio 25 de Noviembre· Moquegua
Saturday, May 9, 2026
18:00
UCV Moquegua
PPG 2.00
2-2
MISS
ADT
PPG 0.83
Over2.5· -0.0%
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
39.5%
Odds: 2.46
EV: -2.8%
Draw
29.3%
Odds: 3.10
EV: -5.5%
Away
31.2%
Odds: 2.95
EV: -8.0%
Model lean:
BTTS
Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Draw ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
46.5%
Odds: 2.15
-0.0%
Over 3.5
21.3%
Odds: 4.00
-8.9%
BTTS
52.3%
Odds: 1.83
-4.3%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘
BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-1
✘
2nd
0-0
✘
3rd
1-0
✘
4th
0-1
✘
5th
2-1
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
UCV Moquegua
1.26
ADT
1.10
Model Suggestion
BTTS
-4.3%
NO VALUE BET
No value bet:
model leans BTTS, but EV is -4.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=39.5%