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UCV Moquegua vs ADT Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 14 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:00

UCV Moquegua

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

ADT

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-110.4%0-25.7%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.9%1-113.1%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.5%2-18.2%2-24.5%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.1%3-13.5%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% 40.7% 2.46 -2.8%

Draw 29.3% 32.3% 3.10 -5.5%

Away win 31.2% 33.9% 2.95 -8.0%

Over 2.5 46.5% 46.5% 2.15 -0.0%

Over 3.5 21.3% 25.0% 4.00 -8.9%

BTTS 52.3% 54.6% 1.83 -4.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

D 29% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.4%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCV Moquegua1.3

ADT1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.3%

Form & verdict PPG

UCV MOQUEGUA · PPG 2.00

ADT · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=39.5%

Win probability 1X2

UCV Moquegua (H) 39.5%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV -2.8%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.5%

ADT (A) 31.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

UCV Moquegua face ADT in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCV Moquegua a 40% chance, the draw 29% and ADT 31%, so UCV Moquegua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for UCV Moquegua and 1.1 for ADT (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCV Moquegua are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.83 for ADT. This match finished 2-2.

UCV Moquegua vs ADT Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions