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Tristan Suarez vs Midland Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:00

Tristan Suarez

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Midland

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.2%0-112.7%0-23.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.4%1-110.8%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.6%2-14.6%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.7%3-11.3%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% — — —

Draw 39.9% — — —

Away win 20.5% — — —

Over 2.5 25.8% — — —

Over 3.5 4.7% — — —

BTTS 41.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob41.8%

H 40% / xG 0.9-0.5 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.2%

#2 1–0 22.4%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 0–1 12.7%

#5 2–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tristan Suarez0.9

Midland0.5

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 4.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TRISTAN SUAREZ · PPG 2.00

MIDLAND · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=39.6%

Win probability 1X2

Tristan Suarez (H) 39.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 39.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Midland (A) 20.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tristan Suarez face Midland in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tristan Suarez a 40% chance, the draw 40% and Midland 21%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.9 for Tristan Suarez and 0.5 for Midland (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tristan Suarez are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Midland. This match finished 1-3.

Tristan Suarez vs Midland Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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