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San Telmo vs Atletico Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:00

San Telmo

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Atletico Mitre

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-113.6%0-26.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.1%1-113.4%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.5%2-16.6%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.5%3-12.2%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% — — —

Draw 34.7% — — —

Away win 28.0% — — —

Over 2.5 35.1% — — —

Over 3.5 12.1% — — —

BTTS 48.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.2%

D 35% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 15.3%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.1%

#4 0–1 13.6%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Telmo1.0

Atletico Mitre0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN TELMO · PPG 1.50

ATLETICO MITRE · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

San Telmo (H) 37.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 34.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Atletico Mitre (A) 28.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

San Telmo face Atletico Mitre in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Telmo a 37% chance, the draw 35% and Atletico Mitre 28%, so San Telmo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for San Telmo and 0.9 for Atletico Mitre (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Telmo are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.83 for Atletico Mitre. This match finished 0-0.

San Telmo vs Atletico Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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