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Deportivo Moron vs Los Andes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Moron

PPG 2.67 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Los Andes

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.6%0-117.5%0-26.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.6%1-112.3%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-05.8%2-14.3%2-21.6%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.4%3-11.0%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.9% 56.5% 1.77 -43.5%

Draw 40.2% 35.1% 2.85 +14.6%

Away win 27.9% 18.2% 5.50 +32.1%

Over 2.5 25.8% 31.3% 3.20 -10.5%

Over 3.5 5.9% 14.3% 7.00 -35.2%

BTTS 45.9% 37.7% 2.65 +21.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.9%

D 40% / xG 0.7-0.7 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 23.6%

#2 0–1 17.5%

#3 1–0 16.6%

#4 1–1 12.3%

#5 0–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Moron0.7

Los Andes0.7

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MORON · PPG 2.67

LOS ANDES · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.67), Away EXCELLENT (2.50)

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Moron (H) 31.9%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -43.5%

Draw 40.2%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +14.6%

Los Andes (A) 27.9%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +32.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Moron face Los Andes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Moron a 32% chance, the draw 40% and Los Andes 28%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Deportivo Moron and 0.7 for Los Andes (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Moron are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 2.50 for Los Andes. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Deportivo Moron vs Los Andes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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