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Toronto vs Inter Miami Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Matchday 12 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 17:00

Toronto

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Inter Miami

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 67% chance

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.9%0-24.1%0-32.9%0-4+2.6%1 1-03.4%1-17.3%1-27.7%1-35.5%1-4+4.8%2 2-03.2%2-16.8%2-27.3%2-35.2%2-4+4.5%3 3-02.0%3-14.3%3-24.5%3-33.2%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-13.1%4+-23.3%4+-32.3%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 27.4% 3.65 +28.8%

Draw 24.5% 25.3% 3.95 -1.9%

Away win 40.2% 54.3% 1.84 -26.0%

Over 2.5 61.7% 67.6% 1.48 -8.7%

Over 3.5 56.7% 45.5% 2.20 +24.7%

BTTS 63.0% 69.0% 1.45 -8.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.0%

A 40% / xG 1.9-2.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 1–2 7.7%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 1–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toronto1.9

Inter Miami2.1

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 56.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TORONTO · PPG 1.38

INTER MIAMI · PPG 2.29

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

67%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs Home AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Toronto (H) 35.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +28.8%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -1.9%

Inter Miami (A) 40.2%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -26.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Toronto face Inter Miami in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toronto a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Inter Miami 40%, so Inter Miami are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Toronto and 2.1 for Inter Miami (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toronto are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 2.29 for Inter Miami. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +28.8%. This match finished 2-4.

Toronto vs Inter Miami Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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