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Esbjerg vs Kolding IF Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Promotion Group - 29 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 17:00

Esbjerg

PPG 1.79 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kolding IF

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-110.5%0-25.7%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.1%1-113.1%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.6%2-18.2%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.2%3-13.4%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 47.6% 2.10 -16.8%

Draw 29.5% 29.0% 3.45 +1.1%

Away win 30.9% 32.3% 3.10 -4.2%

Over 2.5 46.5% 57.8% 1.73 -19.6%

Over 3.5 20.8% 35.7% 2.80 -25.1%

BTTS 52.3% 63.7% 1.57 -17.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

D 30% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Esbjerg1.3

Kolding IF1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ESBJERG · PPG 1.79

KOLDING IF · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.79) vs P(Home)=39.6%

Win probability 1X2

Esbjerg (H) 39.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -16.8%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +1.1%

Kolding IF (A) 30.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Esbjerg face Kolding IF in Denmark - 1. Division on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Esbjerg a 40% chance, the draw 30% and Kolding IF 31%, so Esbjerg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Esbjerg and 1.1 for Kolding IF (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Esbjerg are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.93 for Kolding IF. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Esbjerg vs Kolding IF Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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